Thursday, February 16, 2012

United States' economy - Over-regulated America


AMERICANS love to laugh at ridiculous regulations. A Florida law requires vending-machine labels to urge the public to file a report if the label is not there. The Federal Railroad Administration insists that all trains must be painted with an “F” at the front, so you can tell which end is which. Bureaucratic busybodies in Bethesda, Maryland, have shut down children’s lemonade stands because the enterprising young moppets did not have trading licences. The list goes hilariously on.
But red tape in America is no laughing matter. The problem is not the rules that are self-evidently absurd. It is the ones that sound reasonable on their own but impose a huge burden collectively. America is meant to be the home of laissez-faire. Unlike Europeans, whose lives have long been circumscribed by meddling governments and diktats from Brussels, Americans are supposed to be free to choose, for better or for worse. Yet for some time America has been straying from this ideal.
Consider the Dodd-Frank law of 2010. Its aim was noble: to prevent another financial crisis. Its strategy was sensible, too: improve transparency, stop banks from taking excessive risks, prevent abusive financial practices and end “too big to fail” by authorising regulators to seize any big, tottering financial firm and wind it down. This newspaper supported these goals at the time, and we still do. But Dodd-Frank is far too complex, and becoming more so. At 848 pages, it is 23 times longer than Glass-Steagall, the reform that followed the Wall Street crash of 1929. Worse, every other page demands that regulators fill in further detail. Some of these clarifications are hundreds of pages long. Just one bit, the “Volcker rule”, which aims to curb risky proprietary trading by banks, includes 383 questions that break down into 1,420 subquestions.
Hardly anyone has actually read Dodd-Frank, besides the Chinese government and our correspondent in New York (see article). Those who have struggle to make sense of it, not least because so much detail has yet to be filled in: of the 400 rules it mandates, only 93 have been finalised. So financial firms in America must prepare to comply with a law that is partly unintelligible and partly unknowable.
Flaming water-skis
Dodd-Frank is part of a wider trend. Governments of both parties keep adding stacks of rules, few of which are ever rescinded. Republicans write rules to thwart terrorists, which make flying in America an ordeal and prompt legions of brainy migrants to move to Canada instead. Democrats write rules to expand the welfare state. Barack Obama’s health-care reform of 2010 had many virtues, especially its attempt to make health insurance universal. But it does little to reduce the system’s staggering and increasing complexity. Every hour spent treating a patient in America creates at least 30 minutes of paperwork, and often a whole hour. Next year the number of federally mandated categories of illness and injury for which hospitals may claim reimbursement will rise from 18,000 to 140,000. There are nine codes relating to injuries caused by parrots, and three relating to burns from flaming water-skis.
Two forces make American laws too complex. One is hubris. Many lawmakers seem to believe that they can lay down rules to govern every eventuality. Examples range from the merely annoying (eg, a proposed code for nurseries in Colorado that specifies how many crayons each box must contain) to the delusional (eg, the conceit of Dodd-Frank that you can anticipate and ban every nasty trick financiers will dream up in the future). Far from preventing abuses, complexity creates loopholes that the shrewd can abuse with impunity.
The other force that makes American laws complex is lobbying. The government’s drive to micromanage so many activities creates a huge incentive for interest groups to push for special favours. When a bill is hundreds of pages long, it is not hard for congressmen to slip in clauses that benefit their chums and campaign donors. The health-care bill included tons of favours for the pushy. Congress’s last, failed attempt to regulate greenhouse gases was even worse.
Complexity costs money. Sarbanes-Oxley, a law aimed at preventing Enron-style frauds, has made it so difficult to list shares on an American stockmarket that firms increasingly look elsewhere or stay private. America’s share of initial public offerings fell from 67% in 2002 (when Sarbox passed) to 16% last year, despite some benign tweaks to the law. A study for the Small Business Administration, a government body, found that regulations in general add $10,585 in costs per employee. It’s a wonder the jobless rate isn’t even higher than it is.
A plea for simplicity
Democrats pay lip service to the need to slim the rulebook—Mr Obama’s regulations tsar is supposed to ensure that new rules are cost-effective. But the administration has a bias towards overstating benefits and underestimating costs (see article). Republicans bluster that they will repeal Obamacare and Dodd-Frank and abolish whole government agencies, but give only a sketchy idea of what should replace them.
America needs a smarter approach to regulation. First, all important rules should be subjected to cost-benefit analysis by an independent watchdog. The results should be made public before the rule is enacted. All big regulations should also come with sunset clauses, so that they expire after, say, ten years unless Congress explicitly re-authorises them.
More important, rules need to be much simpler. When regulators try to write an all-purpose instruction manual, the truly important dos and don’ts are lost in an ocean of verbiage. Far better to lay down broad goals and prescribe only what is strictly necessary to achieve them. Legislators should pass simple rules, and leave regulators to enforce them.
Would this hand too much power to unelected bureaucrats? Not if they are made more accountable. Unreasonable judgments should be subject to swift appeal. Regulators who make bad decisions should be easily sackable. None of this will resolve the inevitable difficulties of regulating a complex modern society. But it would mitigate a real danger: that regulation may crush the life out of America’s economy.

Friday, January 27, 2012

An economy crumbles

THE banners at the entrance to the Bank of Greece museum in Athens promise a “fascinating journey through Greece’s modern economic and monetary history”. How could any passer-by resist? Inside the museum ranks of glass cases enclose an array of coins and old bank notes, as well as the paraphernalia used to make them. The bills range from 5 drachma up to 100m drachma, a reminder that Greece has had problems with inflation in the past. The end of history, at least for this exhibition, is 2001 when Greece adopted the euro. But the country’s present troubles suggest an important chapter to the story of Greek money is still to be written. Some reckon the drachma may roll off the presses again.
This is no longer just a fantasy of diehard sceptics about the euro in Britain and Germany. Even Greeks concede that the big problem afflicting the economy, now in its fifth year of recession, is the uncertainty about whether Greece can stay in the euro and get its act together. Savers are anxious that their cash might be forcibly converted to a new Greek currency. By November the Greek banking system had lost a quarter of the deposits it had two years earlier. To fill the gap, the banks have borrowed €43 billion ($56 billion) of emergency funds from the Greek central bank on top of €73 billion of secured loans from the European Central Bank (ECB). Credit remains in short supply because banks have had to cut loans and raise borrowing costs. Informal credit arrangements between firms are breaking down. Foreign suppliers now demand cash payment upfront, making liquidity even scarcer.
Few investors or businesses are brave enough to make long-term bets on the Greek economy in these conditions. The stockmarket has fallen steeply (see chart 1). “You can buy good companies for pocket money,” says one business chief. Assets are cheap but they would become cheaper still were Greece forced out of the euro. Capital spending is down by almost half from four years ago; house building has fallen by two-thirds. The one bright spot is tourism: visitors to Greece were up by 10% last year, in part because tourists steered clear of the unrest in north Africa.
There are hopes that the economy might recover next year if Greece’s place in the euro is confirmed. Agreement on a big new support package from the euro zone and the IMF would put some minds at rest. But a deal on new money cannot be thrashed out until the IMF in particular is sure that Greece’s public finances are on a sustainable path.
That depends, among other things, on private-sector creditors signing up to a bond-exchange deal that will see half of the face value of their Greek paper written off. A deal is proving elusive. Bondholders think Greece’s European rescuers should share in the pain. The ECB has purchased around €40 billion of Greek government bonds, at a discount to their face value, as part of its programme to stabilise bond markets. It stands to make a profit on them, which riles private bondholders. They also want a higher interest rate on the new bonds than officials are willing to sanction. Until a deal is done, Greece is stuck.
From bad to worse
The ever-gloomier diagnoses of Greece’s economy and public finances further complicate negotiations. An IMF report published at the end of last year said that a 50% write-down on private-sector bonds, a target set at an EU summit in October, together with €130 billion of extra official financing at low interest rates would give Greece a decent chance of getting its public debts down to 120% of GDP by 2020.
But that assessment already looks too sanguine. The headwinds facing the economy are proving much stronger than had been forecast. Greece’s GDP probably fell by 6% last year, far more than expected. A weaker economy has made it harder for Greece to meet its fiscal targets. Softer growth in the rest of the euro-zone economy has not helped. But the depth of last year’s slump owes much to a shortage of liquidity, an influence which most economic models ignore, says Yannis Stournaras of IOBE, an Athens think-tank.
The Greek central bank’s figures show that bank credit to households and private firms fell by 2.4% in the year to November. Banks suffering a drain of deposits have had to husband their liquidity. Official lending figures do not reflect the drying up of other sorts of credit. An informal system by which firms used postdated cheques to pay for supplies has broken down, in part because banks are warier of taking them as collateral for short-term loans. Firms complain that the government is slow to pay value-added-tax (VAT) rebates, making the liquidity shortage worse. Few foreigners will supply Greek customers on the basis of a credit guarantee from a Greek bank. So Greek importers, however solid, usually have to pay cash upfront.
Some firms are finding ways round the stigma of being a Greek enterprise and the credit troubles that brings. The headquarters of Aquis, a firm that runs hotels and resorts in Greece, was recently moved to London by its founder, Ioannis Kent. It is now a UK holding company with a British bank account into which the firm’s revenues are paid. Other firms have delayed payments to suppliers and employees.
A necessary fiscal squeeze is adding to the downward spiral and risks becoming self-defeating. The sorts of public spending that are likeliest to induce other economic activity, such as roadbuilding, have been cut, says Mr Stournaras. Big tax increases are not a sure-fire way of raising revenue in a country where taxes are routinely avoided. The rate on restaurant meals was raised from 11% to 23%; such a sharp jump seems almost an invitation to cheat for cash-strapped small businesses. The IMF says a shortfall in VAT receipts suggests some firms are not complying. A hike in car taxes prompted many drivers to hand in their licence plates.
With so many uncertainties, the Greek economy cannot hope to attract the investment it needs to spur recovery. Until a deal on private-sector losses is finalised and implemented, investors cannot rely on a second bail-out package that will keep Greece in the euro. Even if a deal on losses is agreed in principle, a substantial number of holdout creditors could force the Greek government to implement a coercive restructuring. That might further unsettle bond markets and depositors. Banks will also have to be recapitalised after taking losses on their Greek bonds; no one is sure whether they will remain in private hands.
Goodwill hunted
Slow progress on freeing up the economy and cutting the deficit has cast doubt on the ability of Greece’s leaders to implement reforms. Last year the country moved up one place (to 100th) in the World Bank’s rankings of 183 countries for ease of doing business. Businessfolk call for something more radical to demonstrate the country’s commitment to reform.
One suggestion is immediately to shut down lossmaking or underutilised public entities. Another is to tackle the corruption and inefficiency of the tax system by outsourcing the job to foreign tax officials or to a private-sector tax consultancy. That would speed up much-needed use of centralised computer records and stop the face-to-face contact between tax collectors and taxpayers that begets bribery. A signal that banks would operate at arm’s length to the state would also reassure potential investors. So would a high-profile assault on a closed industry.
But Greece’s economic problems are too big to be fixed quickly. Despite a jobless rate that has risen to 18%, Greece still has a current-account deficit of 10% of GDP (see chart 2). For an economy to have so much slack and yet consume more than it produces is a sign of chronic uncompetitiveness. The IMF has said it will take more than a decade for Greece to become competitive. Some reckon it would be easier for Greece to regain its edge by going back to the drachma and devaluing than by keeping the euro and suffering grinding wage deflation. The short-term disruptions would be outweighed by long-term gains.
Most businesspeople see little merit in devaluation. “The empirical evidence is against it,” says Efthymios Vidalis of SEV, Greece’s main business federation. “Greece had two devaluations after joining the European Union and the benefits were short-lived before inflation eroded them. It didn’t work.”
There is another way. When the crisis struck, Apostolos Vakakis, the founder of Jumbo, a Greek retailer, faced a choice: cut costs by 20% or raise productivity by that amount. He chose to improve productivity. In return for a pledge not to cut jobs or wages, Jumbo’s employees agreed to work harder. Each store is now staffed with fewer workers, allowing the firm to open outlets at a faster rate.
 Explore our interactive guide to Europe's troubled economies
Many stress the importance of greater competition in bringing business costs down. In contrast to devaluation, the benefits from opening up professions and industries to competition are permanent, says Mr Stournaras of IOBE. “It is the ‘doing business’ sort of competitiveness that matters,” he says. Greek executives point to the lack of competition in trucking, where no new licences have been issued since 1971, as an example of an industry that raises costs for other Greek firms.
Public opinion also still favours the euro: more than 70% of Greeks say they want to stay in the single currency. But if Greece is to have the breathing-space it needs to right its economy, it has to convince its rescuers that they are not throwing good money after bad. A deal on private-sector losses is only a first step; it seems likely that the euro zone will also have to stump up more money than expected to keep Greece going. It will be a while before the drachma printing plates on display in Athens can truly be confined to history.

Friday, October 14, 2011

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Thursday, October 13, 2011

How One Startup Got 101 Angel Investors — and $30 Million in Funding

OneWire, an employee recruiting platform, has raised $30 million since 2008. That’s not bad for a startup, but nor is it an eye-popping amount. What’s turning heads in the tech scene is the way OneWire raised it: all from individual investors, and not a penny from venture capital firms.
OneWire has 101 angel investors. David Tisch, an investor who advises early stage startups as the managing director of TechStars New York City, says there’s no average number when it comes to angels — but anything more than 10 seems like a lot.
Kerry Rupp, a managing partner at Dreamit Ventures, reacts similarly. “101 opinions can be pretty overwhelming,” she says.
And yet overwhelming opinions were exactly what OneWire co-founders Skiddy von Stade and Brin McCagg were trying to avoid by wrangling its funding this way. Startups often raise a small sum from angel investors and then accept a larger sum from a venture capital firm. But for every happy partnership between a venture capital firm and an entrepreneur, McCagg says, there’s a sour relationship where a VC took decisions out of an startup’s hands.
“The investors do own the majority of the company, but we don’t have an 800-pound gorilla in the room.”
“If you have one big investor that is $30 million,” McCagg says, “they basically own you and tell you what to do. … The investors do own the majority of the company, but we don’t have an 800-pound gorilla in the room.”
Its unconventional approach to funding doesn’t seem to have hurt OneWire. Though not yet profitable, it has hired 50 people, lists companies such as Goldman Sachs and Deloitte among its clients, and occupies 10,000 square feet of office space on Madison Avenue.
McCagg argues that having 101 investors makes sense for OneWire because the success of its all-in-one talent management platform depends upon recruiting large companies as clients. Having those companies’ executives as investors doesn’t hurt this effort — and every meeting with a potential investor doubled as a sales call.
Every investor in OneWire is no more than one degree of separation from a co-founder. Von Stade ran a headhunting business for 14 years. OneWire is McCagg’s third startup. His second, a business-to-business version of eBay, had investors that included Chase Bank, Goldman Sachs, General Electric Capital and eBay.
These are not your average Rolodexes. McCagg says that most of the investors are so wealthy that the amount they’ve kicked to OneWire, on average about $300,000, is negligible to them.
“None of them put in enough that they want to run the business,” he says. “We take their advice very seriously, but it’s not like we have 101 cooks in the kitchen.”
“I just hear that they’re going to have 101 people telling them what to do, whether or not those people have voting control.”
There is no shareholder meeting (McCagg doesn’t think that many would show up if there were). The main communication that OneWire has with the majority of its shareholders is a quarterly letter to keep them abreast of the company’s activities.
Even so, the prospect of giving 101 different investors — no matter how low maintenance — a stake in one company makes some entrepreneurs wary.
“I just hear that they’re going to have 101 people telling them what to do,” Rupp says, “whether or not those people have voting control.”
Image courtesy of Flickr, jronaldlee

America need help! Inflation is a rise in the general level

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.[1] When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation also reflects an erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account in the economy. A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the Consumer Price Index) over time.

Inflation's effects on an economy are various and can be simultaneously positive and negative. Negative effects of inflation include a decrease in the real value of money and other monetary items over time, uncertainty over future inflation may discourage investment and savings, and high inflation may lead to shortages of goods if consumers begin hoarding out of concern that prices will increase in the future. Positive effects include ensuring central banks can adjust nominal interest rates (intended to mitigate recessions), and encouraging investment in non-monetary capital projects.

Economists generally agree that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are caused by an excessive growth of the money supply. Views on which factors determine low to moderate rates of inflation are more varied. Low or moderate inflation may be attributed to fluctuations in real demand for goods and services, or changes in available supplies such as during scarcities, as well as to growth in the money supply. However, the consensus view is that a long sustained period of inflation is caused by money supply growing faster than the rate of economic growth.

Today, most mainstream economists favor a low, steady rate of inflation. Low (as opposed to zero or negative) inflation may reduce the severity of economic recessions by enabling the labor market to adjust more quickly in a downturn, and reduce the risk that a liquidity trap prevents monetary policy from stabilizing the economy. The task of keeping the rate of inflation low and stable is usually given to monetary authorities. Generally, these monetary authorities are the central banks that control the size of the money supply through the setting of interest rates, through open market operations, and through the setting of banking reserve requirements.[

What is Microeconomics?

Microeconomics (from Greek prefix micro- meaning "small" + "economics") is a branch of economics that studies the behavior of how the individual modern household and firms make decisions to allocate limited resources.[1] Typically, it applies to markets where goods or services are being bought and sold. Microeconomics examines how these decisions and behaviours affect the supply and demand for goods and services, which determines prices, and how prices, in turn, determine the quantity supplied and quantity demanded of goods and services.[2][3]

This is in contrast to macroeconomics, which involves the "sum total of economic activity, dealing with the issues of growth, inflation, and unemployment."[2] Microeconomics also deals with the effects of national economic policies (such as changing taxation levels) on the aforementioned aspects of the economy.[4] Particularly in the wake of the Lucas critique, much of modern macroeconomic theory has been built upon 'microfoundations' — i.e. based upon basic assumptions about micro-level behavior.

One of the goals of microeconomics is to analyze market mechanisms that establish relative prices amongst goods and services and allocation of limited resources amongst many alternative uses. Microeconomics analyzes market failure, where markets fail to produce efficient results, and describes the theoretical conditions needed for perfect competition. Significant fields of study in microeconomics include general equilibrium, markets under asymmetric information, choice under uncertainty and economic applications of game theory. Also considered is the elasticity of products within the market system.

World economy

An economy consists of the economic system of a country or other area; the labor, capital and land resources; and the manufacturing, trade, distribution, and consumption of goods and services of that area. An economy may also be described as a spatially limited and social network where goods and services are exchanged according to demand and supply between participants by barter or a medium of exchange with a credit or debit value accepted within the network.

A given economy is the end result of a process that involves its technological evolution, history and social organization, as well as its geography, natural resource endowment, and ecology, as main factors. These factors give context, content, and set the conditions and parameters in which an economy functions.